On Friday 7 Feb 2020, the Singapore government upped their Outbreak alert to DORSCON Orange which caused great concern among her citizens. DORSCON Orange just means that there are person to person spread but the disease is being contained and is not spreading widely in Singapore (see definition).
Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON)DORSCON OrangeDisease is severe and spreads easily from person to person, but disease has not spread widely in Singapore and is being contained
DORSCON Orange is more to indicate the state of the epidemic to healthcare and all other essential services to adjust their state of readiness. It should not be used as a signal that things are going from bad to worse.
This is the natural course of an epidemic. It will start at an epicenter, the spread until there is person to person spread (not from the epicenter) and then die out. So we are expecting and watching for new clusters of patients who are not related to those from Wuhan and Hebui county.
Worldwide there are 36.693 cases, most of it in China. There are 811 deaths in China, with 2 outside China. The majority of death in China is in the elderly with coexisting medical conditions. The fatality rate is 2.4% (which is very low compared to Influenza and SARS). Fatality rate for SARS is about 10%. About 85% of those who have 2019 nCoV have mild ‘common cold’ like symptoms and recover fully.
In Singapore, there are 44 confirmed cases with 4 in ICU. Almost all confirmed cases are from Wuhan or have contact with someone from that region. Most are well and a few have been discharged (blood tested negative for virus three times). There is no death from the virus so far in Singapore. The Singapore Ministry of Health has been monitoring for person to person spread on people who have no contact with people from Wuhan and surrounding areas. This is the next stage of the epidemic. At present, there are three new clusters in Singapore that are being monitored. All the critical areas are being monitored closely and necessary measures to contain an epidemic have been in place for the last month.
In Malaysia, we have 16 cases and all but one is from China. There is also no fatalities from the virus.
I do not think Singapore and Malaysia are in a bad state. What is bad is the over-reaction. Social media is overloaded with fake news and mass hysteria. In social media, suddenly everyone is an expert and can write their own opinion pieces. In Malaysia, so far, the situation is normal and there is no massive hoarding of food or other stuff. People are aware of the situation and all healthcare measures are in place.
We need to be vigilant but not give in to mass hysteria or panic. We need to give more care to our personal hygiene especially to hand washing. There is no need to wear a face mask in public. Wear a mask if you have a cough, cold, or fever to avoid spread your droplet infection to others. This is a time when we should stick together, rather than to point fingers and assign blame. Especially those with racial or self-righteousness overtones. We are all human during an epidemic (not a pandemic).
Note: As this is an evolving situation, all statistics quoted are correct at the time of this posting